January was quite the demographics marathon on the Jay Garvens Show, with this week’s show being the fourth in a row on the subject. I know you’re wondering: “How can someone stack four shows on top of each other and not reach a conclusion?” Well, this week’s show reaches a conclusion of sorts; it takes the knowledge we’ve gained throughout the month and explains what it all means to you.
Demographic data and trends have real, tangible effects on all individuals. They aren’t just abstract economic trivia you hear about on the news; they’re the reason the economy has been depressed for over seven years and why interest rates are currently hovering near historic lows. They’re also why everything is going to reverse in 2020 and we’ll be set for a generation of rapid and high-quality economic growth. The Baby Boomers have been exiting the labor market since the mid-2000s, taking their productivity with them. They spend less in their retirement years and Generation X was simply too small to make up the difference.
Of course, demographic data changes as you zoom in to micro-economies like states and cities. Denver and Colorado Springs have fared far better than the American economy as a whole, and for good reason: Our demographics are younger than the US population generally. The Millennial wave that is set to sweep the country is arriving early to the Front Range cities. We managed to avoid the excesses of the real estate bubble and have seen steady—and at times rapid—growth in property values. Granted, the state of the broader US economy will affect local economies and national demographics will limit how rapidly we can grow in Colorado. But at any given time, Colorado will out-perform the rest of the country simply because we have a larger proportion of younger individuals reaching their peak productive years.
But where does this put you? As I’ve stated on every show this year, it puts you in a unique position to capitalize on the inevitable. Unless we’re hit by a plague or alien invasion that only affects our youngest citizens, the Millennial wave cannot be stopped. We know the economy will putter along for a few more years and then take off around 2020. We know that those who prepare now will be in a better financial position to take advantage of the new opportunities this economic growth will offer. And preparation largely means financial preparation. It means maximizing your earnings potential and paying off debt. It means getting rid of your student loans and refinancing your home immediately. These are the golden years of mortgage interest rates, and by 2020 people will look back at the 3-4% interest rate as a fond yet distant memory.
2015 will be an interesting year for both the economy generally and the mortgage/real estate industries specifically. Denver and Colorado Springs are well-positioned to enjoy an earlier-than-expected economic recover, but mixed economic date both domestically and internationally may dampen those prospects. We’ll have a lot to discuss this year on these topics and more, but it was great to be able to spend January discussing demographics in depth and to introduce the principal theme of this show to our new Denver audience.
1-31-15 Your Demographics in America